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ARBORETUM

THE PATTERN IS IN THE DATA.

847 setups. Your conviction grade on every one. Your actual position size on every one. They do not match.

BEHAVIORAL ANALYTICS — ARBORETUM

THE GAP BETWEEN CONVICTION AND COMMITMENT IS WHERE CAPITAL IS LOST.

What We Track

847 Entry setups

Every setup extracted from live stream transcripts. Date, instrument, direction, price levels — captured at the moment of the call.

A+ Conviction

The grade the trader assigned in the moment. Not in the recap. Not in the journal. What they said, on stream, before the trade resolved.

18% Actual sizing

A+ called. B-grade committed. Delta captured. The percentage of maximum risk actually committed — the number that exposes the gap.

Live Example

What a mismatch looks like

2026-03-28 ETH/USD Long CONV: A+ SZ: 18% of max risk
Δ −2.4σ A+ 18%

This is a real pattern. The trader said this was their best setup of the week.

Process

How it works

01

Every word you say on stream

Transcript extraction from YouTube live sessions. Entry calls, conviction grades, sizing decisions — every word, timestamped and verbatim. Nothing interpreted. Nothing lost.

02

Structure imposed on chaos

Each setup tagged: conviction grade, position size, entry trigger, stop placement. The same extraction schema applied across 847 sessions. Your language becomes data.

03

The gap becomes visible

Conviction score versus actual position size. Said versus did. The delta is small until it isn't. Arboretum shows you exactly where your behavior diverges from your stated edge.

Audience

Who it's for

Trading educator — live streamer

Alex

Calls every trade out loud. Conviction grade, sizing, the full thesis — on camera, every session. No one has ever shown him the aggregate picture. He says he trades what he sees. Arboretum shows him whether that's true.

Retail trader — 3 years in

Daniel

Positive expectancy. Knows his edge. Still undersizes his best setups and overcommits when he's less certain. The problem isn't knowledge — it's the distance between what he says and what he does.

PM — discretionary fund

Mara

Evaluating a trader's signal before allocating. Price data she has. What she needs is behavioral repeatability. Arboretum answers the question Bloomberg doesn't ask.

Data

Traders we've analyzed

Trader Patterns Streams Status
Momentum Caller55319 Active
Breakout Room29411 Active
Prop Desk A1878 Monitoring
Pattern Trader41214 Active
Live Trade Room913 Queued

5 active analyses shown. 8 more in queue. Want your own? Request access.

From the data

The pattern holds
across every trader

Conviction grade vs actual position size 52 weeks · weekly composite
Conviction grade
Position size
Return index — aligned vs misaligned 26 months · indexed to 100
Size matched conviction
Size didn't match